Fort Worth Commercial Market Report: 2026 Trends and Outlook

Fort Worth Commercial Real Estate Market Background

Fort Worth’s commercial real estate market is entering 2026 from a position of genuine strength. A combination of sustained population growth, expanding corporate investment, infrastructure momentum, and improving supply-demand dynamics across every major asset class is setting the stage for what many observers are calling a turning-point year — one where the excesses of the post-pandemic construction boom are finally being absorbed and market fundamentals are tightening in investors’ favor. The fort worth commercial market is poised for significant growth as these trends continue.

In this report, Frakes Realty Group breaks down current conditions across the office, industrial, and retail sectors serving Fort Worth and the broader Tarrant County submarket, with data drawn from independent research institutions, global market research firms, and primary industry sources.

The Foundation: Why Fort Worth Stands Apart

Before examining individual asset classes, it helps to understand what is driving commercial real estate demand in Fort Worth specifically — because the city’s story is distinct from the broader DFW narrative.

Fort Worth has now officially surpassed one million residents, making it the 11th largest city in the United States. Office-using employment has grown 15.3% since 2020, according to Fort Worth Inc., the city’s primary economic development publication. That employment base spans logistics, defense, aerospace, financial services, and healthcare — a diversified mix that provides genuine resilience against sector-specific downturns.

The broader DFW Metroplex has been named the #1 real estate market to watch in the United States for two consecutive years by PwC and the Urban Land Institute in their Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026 report — the most widely cited annual benchmark in the commercial real estate industry, based on surveys of more than 1,700 investors, developers, lenders, and advisors. The report cited the region’s economic resilience, steady population growth, and business-friendly environment as the primary drivers of its sustained top ranking.

Fort Worth was also recently recognized as the most permitting-efficient large city in the United States, with commercial permit volumes rising 10% year-over-year in 2025 and infrastructure permits up 25.7%, according to Fort Worth Inc.. That municipal responsiveness translates directly into lower carrying costs and faster project timelines — a meaningful competitive advantage for developers and investors compared to peer markets.

The Dallas Federal Reserve is projecting more than 278,000 new Texas jobs to be added by the end of 2026, representing a 1.9% increase in statewide employment. More jobs mean more tenants, more retail customers, more warehouse operators, and more demand across every commercial property type in Tarrant County.

Office Market: A Tale of Two Markets

Fort Worth’s office market closed 2025 with a nuanced picture — one that looks challenging in aggregate but contains genuine opportunity for tenants and investors who understand what is actually happening beneath the surface.
Overall conditions: Total office vacancy in Fort Worth ended 2025 at approximately 18.6%, with overall net absorption for the year remaining slightly negative, according to JLL’s Q4 2025 Fort Worth office market analysis published through Fort Worth Inc. However, that headline number significantly obscures a bifurcated market.
The Class A story: Class A office properties recorded more than 250,000 square feet of positive net absorption in 2025. Average asking rents across all office classes reached $29.09 per square foot, while Class A asking rents climbed to $31.49 per square foot — reflecting the premium tenants are placing on newer, amenity-rich space. Fort Worth office rents have risen 7.4% over the past three years overall, with Class A rents in the West and Southwest submarket jumping 9.3%, according to Fort Worth Inc.
The Class B challenge: Class B buildings recorded continued negative absorption across much of Fort Worth, particularly in north Fort Worth and the mid-cities. This dynamic — strong Class A demand running alongside Class B vacancy — is commonly referred to as the “flight to quality” and is the defining trend in office markets nationally. Fort Worth is not unique in experiencing it, but understanding it is essential to making smart decisions in the local market.

The normalization signal: Fort Worth Inc. reported in early 2026 that North Texas office demand remained steady throughout 2025, supported by continued corporate relocations and a return to consistent in-office schedules — with most companies now operating on three- to four-day attendance models. New office construction slowed significantly, which will help reduce future supply pressure.

What this means for tenants: The flight-to-quality dynamic creates genuine negotiating leverage for business tenants, particularly in Class B and older Class A product. Landlords competing for tenants are offering meaningful concessions — including free rent periods, generous tenant improvement allowances, and below-market base rents — that were rare just two or three years ago. Engaging experienced tenant representation before beginning your search is the most effective way to capture that leverage.

What this means for investors: JLL anticipates continued flight-to-quality momentum into 2026, with nearly 1.2 million square feet of new Trophy-class office development projected to reshape the Fort Worth market by 2035. For value-add investors, well-located Class B properties with repositioning potential represent an emerging opportunity as pricing adjusts to reflect current leasing realities.

Industrial Market: The Supply Correction Creates a Window

The Fort Worth industrial market — anchored by the AllianceTexas corridor in far north Fort Worth — is arguably the most strategically significant commercial real estate submarket in North Texas. And right now, the supply-demand dynamics are creating a window that both tenants and investors should understand.

Current fundamentals: Across the DFW market, industrial vacancy stabilized at approximately 8.7% in Q1 2026, with asking rents averaging $10.24 per square foot and annual rent growth of 3.8%, according to CoStar Group data cited across multiple independent research sources. Demand remains strongest in bulk logistics space, where large users continue to drive leasing activity in outer submarkets with modern inventory.

AllianceTexas: a submarket of national significance: Far north Fort Worth’s AllianceTexas development — Hillwood’s 27,000-acre master-planned logistics and industrial campus — currently holds the largest industrial construction pipeline in the United States, with 7.7 million square feet under development across 20 projects. Most of that activity is pre-leased or built-to-suit, a signal that demand is driven by real occupier requirements rather than speculative development. In late 2025, Hillwood broke ground on two additional speculative industrial buildings totaling more than 1.1 million square feet at AllianceTexas, both scheduled for 2026 delivery, according to Commercial Property Executive.

The supply correction: After years of aggressive post-pandemic development, new construction deliveries in Fort Worth’s industrial market fell 46.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. With the pipeline now contracting and absorption improving, the market is moving toward equilibrium — and most analysts expect vacancy to tighten and rent growth to reaccelerate through late 2026 and into 2027.

Pricing by size: Smaller bay and flex industrial properties under 50,000 square feet continue to command premium rents — typically between $10.00 and $12.50 per square foot NNN — due to limited development of that product type. Larger bulk logistics facilities generally range from $5.00 to $6.50 per square foot, with infill locations near DFW Airport at the top of the range.

The investment picture: DFW industrial investment sales reached more than $5.6 billion through November 2025 — the highest volume of any industrial market in the United States and a 33% increase from the same period in 2024, according to Commercial Property Executive. Institutional capital including major national investment firms has been active in acquiring infill industrial properties throughout the market, a reliable signal of long-term confidence in DFW’s industrial fundamentals. In Q1 2026, investment activity produced approximately $369 million in sales volume at an average of $147 per square foot, with cap rates averaging 6.2% per CoStar data.

The opportunity for tenants: Elevated vacancy has shifted negotiating leverage toward tenants in many size ranges and submarkets. Tenants willing to work with an experienced broker can secure concessions, flexible lease structures, and below-replacement-cost rents that are unlikely to persist once the supply correction fully plays out.

Retail Market: Tight Fundamentals, Active Investment

If Fort Worth’s industrial market is generating national attention for its scale, the retail market is generating attention for its resilience. Vacancy remains near historic lows, rents are rising, and investor demand has rebounded meaningfully heading into 2026.

Vacancy and absorption: DFW retail closed 2025 with vacancy holding near 4.9% — exceptionally tight for a major metropolitan market — with strong net absorption throughout the year, according to CoStar Group data. Competition for quality retail space is intense, and time-to-lease has fallen sharply as well-located centers fill quickly.
Rents: Retail rents across DFW have grown approximately 4.6% annually over the past three years, with average asking rents now in the $24.91 to $25.15 per square foot range per CoStar data. Premium first-generation spaces in new developments — particularly those anchored by grocery tenants — are commanding rates above $40 per square foot in high-demand locations. According to the PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026 report, DFW ranked as the nation’s top retail market in this year’s survey, driven by population growth and sustained retailer interest even as some national chains navigate headwinds.

Construction pipeline: DFW leads the nation in active retail construction, with approximately 7.2 to 7.8 million square feet underway, the majority of it already pre-leased, according to CoStar. This is not speculative building — it reflects genuine retailer demand chasing population growth in high-income suburban communities. While most of that construction activity is concentrated in Collin and Denton Counties to the north, Fort Worth’s rapidly growing residential communities along I-35W are creating new retail demand nodes as population expands northward.

Investment activity: DFW retail investment rebounded to over $1.2 billion in 2025 — its strongest showing in two years — with private buyers accounting for more than 80% of transaction activity. Single-tenant net-lease assets and grocery-anchored centers are the most sought-after investment targets, with cap rates ranging from the low-5% range for quick-service restaurant properties to the high-6% range for grocer-anchored centers, per CoStar data. Retail properties in the market are generally trading between $276 and $281 per square foot.

Fort Worth specifically: Retail vacancy in the Fort Worth submarket mirrors the broader DFW trend, hovering near 5% with rents rising due to limited available supply. The $1.1 billion North City mixed-use development under construction at I-35W and North Tarrant Parkway is one of the highest-profile examples of the retail and mixed-use investment flowing into the Fort Worth market’s expanding northern corridors.

What This Means for Fort Worth Businesses and Investors

The data points toward a market in purposeful transition — moving from the supply-heavy, tenant-favorable conditions of 2023 and 2024 toward a tighter, more landlord-favorable environment in 2026 and beyond. The window for capturing the best lease terms in industrial and Class B office is open now, but it will not stay open indefinitely as supply normalizes and demand continues to build.

For business tenants, now remains one of the more favorable negotiating environments in recent memory, particularly in industrial and older office product. Working with a tenant representative who understands current market conditions is the most reliable way to ensure you capture concessions and terms that reflect where the market actually is today — not where it was in 2022 or where landlords wish it still were.

For property owners, proactive leasing strategy and realistic pricing are the critical variables in the current environment. Well-located, well-maintained assets continue to perform. Landlords who price to the current market and invest in their properties are leasing space; those holding to pre-correction expectations are sitting on vacancy.

For investors, Fort Worth offers a compelling combination of yield, long-term growth fundamentals, and relative value compared to coastal alternatives. Industrial assets in the AllianceTexas corridor, retail properties with essential-service or grocery anchors, and strategically located Class A office properties represent the most active and well-supported segments of the investment market heading into the second half of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Data sources and further reading: PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026 · Fort Worth Inc. Office Market Analysis · JLL Fort Worth Office Market Dynamics · Hillwood AllianceTexas · Commercial Property Executive — DFW Industrial · CoStar Group · Dallas Federal Reserve